The state of Fashion: McKinsey and BOF expectations and trends for 2019


According to the report published by McKinsey and The Business of Fashion, fashion should grow at a rate between 3.5% and 4%, from 4-5% estimated for the whole of 2018 (improving from 2.5-3, 5% of 2017). According to experts, it will be polarized increases, due to volatility, uncertainty and changes in the global economy.

Antonio Achille, McKinsey’s senior partner and global head of luxury, says that if we consider the individual drops, only the value and luxury will record solid performance in 2019, with an increase between 5-6% and between 4.5-5, 5%, respectively.

The value will be driven primarily by realities with very strong propositions, which will overcome the mid-market players. The growth of luxury will instead be driven by the rapidly growing economies of the Asia-Pacific and the travel boom in the world.

World Travel
World Travel

A survey that involved about 300 managers and experts in the fashion industry made it possible to draw up the sentiment on 2019: 56% of the sample expects an improvement in the premium-luxury segment, but the optimists fall to 42% in the medium of range and 27% in value (in the price categories of McKinsey it is the target between the medium and the discount).

In 2019, sales growth expectations mainly regard the emerging markets of the Apac area (6.5-7.5%) and the emerging European markets (4.5-5.5%).

As for the products, sportswear (6-7%) and the bag-suitcase sector (4.5-5.5%) should be sold more.

Chanel Bag
Chanel Bag

Louis Vuitton
Louis Vuitton

The State of Fashion has also outlined 10 trends for 2019. Prudence is almost obvious: 70% of respondents said they were worried about the global macroeconomic outlook for next year.

Second trend: the rise of India, where the middle class grows and the manufacturing sector is strengthened. Furthermore, a global reorganization of the value chain is expected and the emergence of business models linked to used, renewed, repaired and hired.

The brands will then have to take a clear position on social and environmental responsibility, especially in some markets. Consumers who expect to buy a product at the exact moment they are aware of it will have to be taken into account (today Amazon customers in the USA expect deliveries within 24 hours, in 1995 they were 9 days).

Another hypothetical trend is the client’s expectation of absolute transparency on the part of companies (for example on the authenticity and originality of the product).

Consolidated brands are required to change their business models, image and offer to counter a new generation of emerging small emerging brands, due to infidelity and consumer desire.

The e-commerce platforms will have to continue to renew themselves, especially in high added value services.

Emanuela Zini

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